Nomura: No real estate recovery for UAE in 2010

http://www.arabianbusiness.com/579615-dubai-debt-woes-to-hurt-uae-property-industry---nomura-
Dubai debt woes to hurt UAE property industry - Nomura by Bloomberg on Saturday, 23 January 2010Dubai’s debt crisis has sapped investor confidence and may hurt the property industry in the UAE this year, analysts at Nomura Holdings said in a report on Friday.“The Dubai government’s announcement of a Dubai World restructuring and debt standstill agreement has put an end to any likelihood of a real estate recovery in 2010,” newswire Bloomberg quoted Nomura as saying.Dubai World, one of Dubai’s three main state-owned business groups, said on November 25 that it would seek to delay repaying debt for at least six months, roiling markets in the Middle East and around the world.The global credit crisis led to a 50 percent decline in property prices in the city and hampered the ability of Dubai-based companies to raise loans and refinance.House prices in Dubai may fall this year and remain little changed in Abu Dhabi, with the second quarter being the low point for the market in the Gulf state, the Nomura report said.Dubai may have total debt of as much as $170bn, more than previously estimated, investment bank EFG-Hermes Holding said in a report Jan 19.The emirate, the second-largest in the UAE has raised $20bn by selling bonds to Abu Dhabi, two state-run banks there and the UAE central bank.

Buy Treasuries, Buy The Dollar, Dump Commodities

Gary Shilling has become famous in the last few years for predicting the credit crunch and the bear market. The bearish investor still believes deflation is the dominant force at work and that the credit crunch is in the process of unfolding. But he isn’t bearish about everything. The following are his 6 buys:1. Buy treasury bonds – the safehaven trade will return.2. Buy income-producing securities – high quality dividend names will be a safe place to hide.3. Buy consumer staples and foods – consumers won’t stop buying the necessities.4. Buy ’small luxuries’ – consumers are trading down.5. Buy the U. S. dollar – still the world’s safehaven currency.6. Buy eurodollar futures.Unfortunately for market bulls Shilling is generally bearish about stocks and the global economy. His 11 sells:1. Sell U.S. stocks in general – U.S. stocks are just too expensive.2. Sell home-builder and selected related stocks – home prices will fall 10% in 2010 and the stocks will tank with it.3. Sell big-ticket consumer discretionary equities- consumers aren’t buying luxury goods due to the trade down.4. Sell banks & other financial institutions – the days of big bank profits and bailouts are over.5. Sell consumer lenders’ stocks – consumers will continue to deleverage.6. Sell many low- and old-tech capital-equipment producers.7. If you plan to sell a home or investment house, do so yesterday.8. Sell junk bonds.9. Sell commercial real estate – the real estate bubble is a slow motion train wreck.10. Sell most commodities – the dollar rally will crush commodities.11. Sell developing country stocks and bonds – there will be no decoupling.Read more market commentary at The Pragmatic Capitalist -- >
http://www.businessinsider.com/gary-shillings-top-trades-for-the-year-buy-treasuries-buy-the-dollar-dump-commodities-2010-1