Tuesday, April 20, 2010

New ash clouds keep London airports closed again

New ash clouds keep London airports closed again

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Why Texas is doing so much better economically than the rest of the nation.

Once a separate nation, Texas has recently been behaving more like an independent economic republic than a regular state. While it hasn't been immune to the problems plaguing the nation, the Texas housing market, employment rate, and overall economic growth are relatively strong. Chalk some of this up to accidents of geology and geography. But Texan prosperity also reflects the conscious efforts of a once-parochial place to embrace globalization.




On several measures of economic stress, Texas is doing quite well. The state unemployment rate is 8.2 percent—high, but still one many states would envy. (California's is 12.5 percent; Michigan's is 14.1 percent.) It entered recession later than the rest of the country—Texas was adding jobs through August 2008—and started slowly adding jobs again last fall, thanks mostly to its great position in the largely recession-proof energy industry.



The Texas housing market also has fared better than many. The mortgage delinquency rate (the portion of borrowers three months behind on payments) is 5.78 percent, compared with 8.78 nationwide, according to First American CoreLogic. That's partly because relaxed zoning codes and abundant land kept both price appreciation and speculation down. "House prices didn't experience a bubble in the same way as the rest of the nation," said Anil Kumar, senior economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. But it's also because of two attributes not commonly associated with the Longhorn State: financial restraint and comparatively strong regulation. Unlike many of its neighbors, Texas has state laws that prohibited consumers from using home-equity lines of credit to increase borrowing to more than 80 percent of the value of their homes. The upshot: Dallas housing prices have fallen only 7 percent from their 2007 peak, according to the Case-Shiller index.



As it has for decades, energy is driving Texas' economy. But it's not because the state's wells are gushing crude. In November 2009, Texas wells produced 1.08 million barrels per day, about half as much as they did in the late 1980s. In recent years, natural gas has been undergoing a renaissance. The state's production rose about 35 percent between 2004 and 2008. And Texas has received a big boost from a different, renewable source of energy: wind.



In this area, Texas' size and history of independence has enabled it to jump-start a new industry. The state has its own electricity grid, which is not connected to neighboring states. That has allowed it to move swiftly and decisively in deregulating power markets, building new transmission lines, and pursuing alternative sources. "We can build transmission lines without federal jurisdiction and without consulting other states," said Paul Sadler, executive director of the Austin-based Wind Coalition. Ramping up wind power nationally would require connecting energy fields—the windswept, sparsely populated plains—to population centers on the coasts and in the Midwest. Texas' grid already connects the plains of West Texas with consumers in Dallas, Austin, San Antonio, and Houston. Texas recently surpassed 10,000 megawatts of capacity, the most by far of any state and enough to power 3 million homes, Sadler says. Wind energy is also powering employment—creating more than 10,000 jobs so far. And it and has attracted foreign companies, including Danish turbine maker Vestas, Spanish renewable-energy giant Iberdrola, and Shell.



Texas today is more suburban engineer than urban cowboy, more Michael Dell than J.R. Ewing. Austin, home to the University of Texas, the state government, and Dell Computer, has a 7 percent unemployment rate. Yes, ExxonMobil is based in Irving.* But the state's energy complex is increasingly focused more on services and technology than on intuition and wildcatting. And it is selling those services into the global oil patch. Russian, Persian Gulf, and African oil developers now come to Houston for equipment, engineering, and software.



While its political leaders may occasionally flirt with secession, Texas thrives on connection. It surpassed California several years ago as the nation's largest exporting state. Manufactured goods like electronics, chemicals, and machinery account for a bigger chunk of Texas' exports than petroleum does. In the first two months of 2010, exports of stuff made in Texas rose 24.3 percent, to $29 billion, from 2009. That's about 10 percent of the nation's total exports. There are more than 700,000 Texan jobs geared to manufacturing goods for export, according to Patrick Jankowski, vice president of research at the Greater Houston Partnership. "A lot of it is capital goods that the Asian, Latin American, and African [countries] are using to build their economies."

Thanks to that embrace of globalization, the Texas turnaround may help lead the nation in its economic turnaround. Texans have always had the ability to think big. Now that their state has become a player in the global economy, we can expect a new kind of swagger
 
http://www.slate.com/id/2250999/?yahoo=y
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Thursday, April 15, 2010

Rents Rising as More Americans Can’t Afford to Buyby JON PRIOR

Purchasing a home remains unaffordable for many Americans despite continued declines in home prices and record low mortgage rates. And in the search for affordable housing, many consumers are relying on an already strained apartment market for temporary accommodation, as housing advisers urge Congress to implement government-backed rental assistance.



The income needed to purchase a median-priced home dropped in 93% of the markets studied by the Center for Housing Policy – the research affiliate to the National Housing Conference, an advocate for policies that promote affordable housing. Yet, despite the drop, many Americans still do not earn enough to own a home.



The study compared and ranked the costs of buying or renting a home in more than 200 US metropolitan areas with the salaries of more than 60 jobs.



Consumers are renting more, according to the survey, but the typical rent for a two-bedroom home rose in 89% of those markets to meet the demand. The rise in rents and drop in homeownership costs are most noteworthy in Florida, where the income needed to buy a median-priced home fell more than 20% in 12 metro markets. Meanwhile, two-bedroom rents rose across all of the Florida markets by nearly 6%.



And with deal-home prices rising, for instance foreclosures hovering near record heights, distressed consumers are finding refuge in the apartment sector. In reaction, Bob DeWitt, CEO of GID Investment Advisers testified to Congress yesterday on behalf of the National Multi Housing Council (NMHC), that government support is needed for the apartment industry. He warned lawmakers not to create a capital shortage for the lower-profile sector as they contemplate ways to reduce taxpayer exposure to the secondary market.



“This is important,” he said, “because the nation is increasingly relying on apartments as fundamental changes in our society are changing the types of housing we need to build. Housing expert Professor Arthur Nelson of the University of Utah projects that half of all housing built over the next 10 years will need to be rental housing to meet the dramatically changing landscape of demand

http://www.housingwire.com/2010/03/24/rents-rising-as-more-americans-can%E2%80%99t-afford-to-buy/

Friday, April 9, 2010

Dallas area has a flood of hotel foreclosure filings

A perfect storm of overbuilding and a depressed economy is threatening a growing number of Dallas-Fort Worth hotels with foreclosure.In the first four months of 2010, more hotel foreclosure filings have been recorded in North Texas than in all of last year.




And the industry outlook is for defaults to increase.



"The hotel market here got overbuilt and overfinanced," said George Roddy, whose Foreclosure Listing Service track property foreclosure filings in more than two dozen Texas counties. "There are just too many of them."



So far this year, Foreclosure Listing Service has recorded 43 hotel and motel foreclosure filings in the four-county area. That's up from 41 for all of 2009 and just 18 in 2008.



Hotels posted for forced sales by lenders range from the luxury Four Seasons Hotel & Resort in Las Colinas, with $183 million in original debt, to decrepit highway motels with less than $1 million in debt.



"What surprises us was that most of these foreclosure filings didn't occur in 2009," said Randy McCaslin with hotel analyst PKF Consulting.



Lenders may have been waiting to see how the economy was going to play out, McCaslin said.



"It seem like now is the time" lenders have decided to make their move, he said. "It's happening to any real estate that's overleveraged. It was the exceptional hotel that could make debt service last year."





Worst since 1930s



Income from hotel properties has taken a big hit.



From late 2006 to late 2009, D-FW hotel occupancies fell 8.3 percentage points to 45.5 percent, according to the latest data from PKF Consulting.



Over the same three years, average hotel room rates fell 6.9 percent. Rates are down an even greater 12 percent from the peak in 2007.



PKF Consulting says that the U.S. hotel business in 2009 had the worst year since the 1930s.



And the industry now has the highest proportion of troubled properties of any real estate type, according to a recent report by Real Estate Research Corp. An estimated $38 billion in U.S. hotels are now considered distressed.



"The luxury hotels are getting hit the hardest because of the AIG effect," said longtime Texas hotel industry expert John Keeling of Houston's Valencia Group, a hotel investor and developer. "Many business travelers are avoiding the luxury hotels because they don't want to be criticized for spending too much."





Running out



Keeling anticipates that 2010 will be another tough year for Texas hotels and that 2011 won't be much better with only the "beginnings" of room rate and occupancy recovery.



"Will we get there by 2012? That's probably even optimistic," he said.



Keeling said many of the state's hotel operators have "held on by their fingernails" and are now running out of options to meet mortgage obligations.



So far, the lenders have been reluctant to take the properties back, "because they didn't know what to do with them," Keeling said.



In 2009, just $2.5 billion in U.S. hotel properties were sold to investors, according to Real Estate Research – a 77 percent decline in sales volume from 2008. The peak year was in 2007 when $78.5 billion in hotel property sales were recorded.



Hotel brokers say there are buyers for distressed hotels, but so far few good properties have come to the market.



"What we are seeing on the market now is a good bit of junk that needs a lot of renovation," said David Young, a hospitality property broker with Henry S. Miller Commercial. "I've got a bunch of clients that want to buy hotels."

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/....

Wednesday, April 7, 2010

Bernanke Says Joblessness, Foreclosures Pose Hurdles to Recovery

By Scott Lanman and Darrell Preston


April 7 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said joblessness, home foreclosures and weak lending to small businesses pose challenges to the economy as it recovers from the worst recession since the 1930s.

“We are far from being out of the woods,” Bernanke said today in a speech in Dallas. While the financial crisis has abated and economic growth will probably reduce unemployment over the next year, the U.S. faces hurdles including the lack of a sustained rebound in housing, a “troubled” commercial real estate market and “very weak” hiring, he said.

The remarks reflect concerns by Fed officials at their meeting last month that the job market and tight credit would restrain consumer spending. At the session, Bernanke and his colleagues reiterated interest rates will stay very low for an “extended period.” He didn’t repeat that in today’s speech, while saying the Fed’s “stimulative” rates will aid growth.

“The economy has stabilized and is growing again, although we can hardly be satisfied when one out of every 10 U.S. workers is unemployed and family finances remain under great stress,” Bernanke said in prepared remarks to the Dallas Regional Chamber.


Separately, New York Fed President William Dudley said today that the benchmark federal funds rate “needs to be exceptionally low for an extended period to contribute to easier financial conditions to support economic activity.”


Dudley, who serves as vice chairman of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee under Bernanke, was responding to a question from former U.S. Deputy Treasury Secretary Roger Altman, now chairman of Evercore Partners Inc., after a speech to the Economic Club of New York.

Treasuries Rise

Treasuries rose, pushing the yield on 10-year securities down six basis points to 3.89 percent at 2:16 p.m. in New York. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell 0.3 percent to 1,186.26.

At the meeting last month, central bankers left the benchmark rate target, covering overnight interbank loans, in a range of zero to 0.25 percent, where it has been since December 2008.


The median estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News last month is for a Fed interest-rate increase in November.

“Although much of the financial system is functioning more or less normally, bank lending remains very weak, threatening the ability of small businesses to finance expansion and new hiring,” he said.



Securities Purchases



The Fed last week completed plans to purchase $1.25 trillion of mortgage-backed securities and $175 billion of federal agency debt to reduce home-loan costs. Central bankers are debating when to start selling the debt to reduce the Fed’s balance sheet, which has ballooned to $2.31 trillion from its pre-crisis level of about $874 billion.



“We have yet to see evidence of a sustained recovery in the housing market,” Bernanke said. “Mortgage delinquencies for both subprime and prime loans continue to rise as do foreclosures. The commercial real estate sector remains troubled, which is a concern for communities and for banks holding commercial real estate loans.”



Bernanke said some of the economy’s “toughest problems” are in the job market. U.S. employers added 162,000 jobs in March, the third gain in five months and the most in three years. The unemployment rate held at 9.7 percent, close to a 26- year high.



“Hiring remains very weak,” Bernanke said. “I am particularly concerned” that more than 40 percent of those without jobs have been out of work for at least six months, because such spells may erode skills and reduce the workers’ income and employment prospects, the Fed chief said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...UHEGDJho&pos=1


__________________

Bernanke is Catching on: Says U.S. Must Address Soaring Debt

Mr. Bernanke said the U.S. will ultimately have to decide between raising taxes, cutting Social Security or Medicare, or less spending on everything from education to defense.




By LUCA DI LEO



DALLAS—The U.S. must start to prepare for challenges posed by an aging population with a credible plan to gradually reduce a soaring public debt, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Wednesday.



Health spending is set to increase over the long term as the U.S. population grows older, posing challenges to the country's already strained finances, the Fed chief warned.





Meanwhile, Fed Bank of New York President William Dudley said Wednesday that the damage caused by financial-market bubbles should bring about a sea change in the way the central bank acts, with the Fed needing to move toward active efforts to reign in financial market excess.



"There is little doubt that asset bubbles exist and they occur fairly frequently," and when they burst the economy frequently suffers, Mr. Dudley said. While it can be difficult to discern the existence of a financial-market bubble, "uncertainty is not grounds for inaction" on the part of central bankers, Mr. Dudley said.

More


Mr. Bernanke, speaking at a Dallas Chamber of Commerce event, said that "unless we as a nation demonstrate a strong commitment to fiscal responsibility, in the longer run we will have neither financial stability nor healthy economic growth."

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...s_markets_main

Sunday, April 4, 2010

Manhattan Apartment Sales Jump, Buyers Seek Bargains

By Oshrat Carmiel




April 2 (Bloomberg) -- Manhattan apartment sales doubled in the first quarter as bargain-hunting buyers scooped up co-ops and condos in a market where resale prices have fallen an average 29 percent since their peak.



The number of sales soared to 2,384 from 1,195 a year earlier, New York appraiser Miller Samuel Inc. and broker Prudential Douglas Elliman Real Estate said today. The median price for a co-op or condo slid 11 percent to $868,000. "

Read More:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aQraOQrodPxg&pos=5