Wednesday, February 4, 2009

Treasuries bond "bubble" slowly bursting

http://uk.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUKTRE50N0GF20090124
"Treasury bonds have sold off as markets have started to digest the rapidly growing volume of future government issuance," said Mohamed El-Erian, chief executive of bond giant Pacific Investment Management Co, or Pimco.
Treasuries performed spectacularly in 2008, returning more than 25 percent in long-maturing bonds, as investors piled into the securities when it became obvious the economy was heading off a cliff.
In fact, yields on long-maturing bonds were trading below 3 percent and only 1-2 basis points on three-month T-bills, the lowest in decades, in December.
The proximate cause for the selling in Treasuries stems from expectations that the government will need to borrow about $2 trillion of debt this year to finance its rescue packages for the battered banking sector. Already, outstanding Treasury debt stood at $5.5 trillion at the end of September.
With this in mind, investors are fleeing Treasuries. In fact, while the Dow Jones industrial average .DJI is down 7.5 percent so far this year, the 30-year Treasury bond is down even more at 10 percent. This is contrary to the usual dynamic, where Treasuries move in the opposite direction of stocks

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